09.07.2025

INES Gas Scenarios: July Update Shows Slow Progress in Filling Germany’s Gas Storage Facilities

With the current July update, the Initiative Energien Speichern (INES) analyses the gas supply situation in Germany for the coming winter. Currently, around 70% of German gas storage capacity has been booked by market participants – meaning it can only be filled up to this level. However, a 70% filling level is not sufficient to ensure a secure supply during very cold temperatures.

Berlin, July 9, 2025 – Germany began the new storage year on April 1, 2025, with a comparatively low filling level of 29%. Since then, gas injection has been progressing slowly. By the end of June, the filling level had increased to 51%, but this is still significantly below the long-term average of nearly 70% for this time of year.

A complete filling of the gas storage facilities by November 1, 2025, is already technically no longer possible. Based on the currently marketed capacities, the storage facilities can be filled to a maximum of 70%. However, the German government has instruments at its disposal under the Gas Storage Act to increase the filling level beyond that point.

Insufficiently Filled Gas Storage Facilities Pose a Risk to Supply Security

Assuming a maximum gas storage filling level of 70%, the following scenarios emerge for gas supply in winter 2025/2026:

• In the case of average to mild winter temperatures in 2025/26, the gas storage facilities will be moderately to significantly depleted. In both scenarios, the legally required filling level of 30% on February 1, 2026, can be maintained.
• In the event of an extremely cold winter, the storage facilities would be completely emptied by the end of January 2026 – under current consumption patterns, a full supply would no longer be possible.

Sebastian Heinermann, Managing Director of INES, comments on the results of the July update as follows: „Based on the current booking levels, the gas storage facilities will be filled to a maximum of 70% through purely market-based mechanisms. However, the July update of the INES gas scenarios shows that a 70 percent storage level is not sufficient to ensure gas supply during a very cold winter – even if the storage facilities in our neighbouring countries were fully filled. All LNG terminals in Germany have been factored into the analysis. Against this backdrop, the question arises as to how the federal government plans to fully ensure security of gas supplies for the coming winter.“

Background on the INES Gas Scenarios:
INES continuously models the European gas markets to assess the security of gas supply. Based on this modeling and taking into account the storage levels as of July 1, 2025, three scenarios for gas supply in Germany for summer 2025 and winter 2025/26 were considered:

• The first scenario uses country-specific temperatures from the EU weather year 2016 to reflect normal weather conditions.
• Another scenario assumes "warm temperatures" similar to those of the European winter in 2020.
• A third scenario examines the gas supply under "cold temperatures" comparable to the European winter of 2010.

INES publishes updates on the INES gas scenarios every two months. The next update is scheduled for September 16, 2025.

A detailed description of the scenarios and results is available in a comprehensive documentation. An additional slide set presents the key contents of the documentation clearly.

Current information on gas storage levels in Germany and in the individual federal states can be accessed at any time via the INES storage map. In addition, storage data can be filtered not only by different storage types (cavern and pore storage) but also by gas qualities (L-/H-gas and hydrogen).

FURTHER INFORMATION

• Press statement as PDF file
• Presentation for the July update (in German)
• Documentation for the July update (in German)

Read Press Release in German / Pressemitteilung auf Deutsch lesen