20.01.2026
Germany entered the winter of 2025/26 with low gas storage levels. The January update of the INES Gas Scenarios shows that the mild December has improved the initial situation and reduced the gas shortage identified in the modelling. Nevertheless, winter preparedness remains insufficient. INES calls for further development of the legal and regulatory framework in order to ensure security of supply in a reliable and cost-efficient manner going forward.
Berlin, January 20 2026 – The winter of 2025/26 has so far been characterised by moderate temperatures. December recorded an average monthly temperature of 3.1 degrees Celsius, almost exactly within the range of normal temperatures (assumption in the INES Gas Scenarios: 3.2 degrees Celsius). By comparison, the extremely cold winter of 2010 recorded an average monthly temperature of –4.1 degrees Celsius. This has improved the starting position for the remainder of the winter and reduced the gas shortage identified in the models compared with the November update.
January has so far also been colder than a normal year, but without extreme values. The current monthly average temperature stands at –0.4 degrees Celsius and is therefore significantly higher than the reference value of the extremely cold winter of 2010 (–4.6 degrees Celsius). Accordingly, the withdrawal of gas from storage has so far accelerated less strongly than in the extremely cold scenarios. Nevertheless, storage levels are now developing at a historically low level.
GAS SHORTAGE IN MODELLING IMPLIES PRICE SIGNALS AND DEMAND REDUCTION
The INES scenarios continue to show that extremely cold temperatures may lead to supply shortfalls. However, a gas shortage identified in the modelling does not imply a physical lack of supply. In reality, it would initially manifest itself through sharp price increases, forcing demand reductions and thereby bringing the market back into balance. Initial price increases on wholesale markets can already be observed.
STORAGE LEVELS RECALL THE CRISIS YEAR 2021/22
Germany entered the heating season with a storage level of only 75 percent. At the beginning of 2026, total storage levels stood at just 57 percent – around 23 percentage points below the previous year’s level. A comparably low level was last recorded during the crisis winter of 2021/22.
The insufficient initial filling prior to the winter of 2025/26 therefore remains the central risk factor for security of supply. Although the winter so far has temporarily eased the situation, this does not change the structural weaknesses in winter preparedness.
MARKET DISTORTIONS WEAKEN INCENTIVES FOR INJECTION
The insufficient filling of gas storage facilities is attributable, among other factors, to the existing filling level requirements and the associated market distortions. These affect price formation, dampen the seasonal summer–winter spread and thereby weaken market-based incentives for gas injection.
Under the Gas Storage Act, the Federal Government had the option to deploy state instruments to ensure higher storage levels. This option was not exercised due to concerns about high costs. Against this background, it is consistent that the new Federal Government announces in the coalition agreement that it will “introduce instruments to ensure a secure and more cost-efficient filling of gas storage facilities” (Coalition Agreement, p. 30).
A look at the storage levels of other EU Member States also shows that winter preparedness can be significantly improved through appropriate political frameworks. In an integrated EU internal market, a purely competitive approach to gas storage in Germany is only conditionally viable if neighbouring countries safeguard their storage management through regulatory measures.
INES: STATUS QUO NOT SUSTAINABLE – FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE FRAMEWORK REQUIRED
Sebastian Heinermann, Managing Director of INES, comments:
“The mild winter conditions have eased the situation in the short term, but must not obscure the fact that gas storage filling ahead of the winter of 2025/26 was insufficient. The current mechanisms do not adequately safeguard security of supply. The legal and regulatory framework therefore needs to be further developed. At the same time, harmonised frameworks at the European level are required so that German storage facilities can participate in fair competition.“
Background on the INES Gas Scenarios:
INES continuously models the European gas markets to assess the security of gas supply. For the January update, the scenarios were calculated on the basis of actual storage levels at the beginning of 2026, as well as updated temperature and consumption data.
A detailed description of the assumptions and results is available in a comprehensive documentation. An additional slide set presents the key contents of the documentation clearly.
INES publishes updates on the INES gas scenarios every two months. The next update is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
Current information on gas storage levels in Germany and in the individual federal states can be accessed at any time via the INES storage map. In addition, storage data can be filtered not only by different storage types (cavern and pore storage) but also by gas qualities (L-/H-gas and hydrogen).
FURTHER INFORMATION:
Read Press Release in German/ Pressemitteilung auf Deutsch lesen