INES has published the February update on the association's own gas scenarios. Temperatures in winter 2023/2024 continue to be above normal temperatures. The gas storage level is above the historical average despite the cold spell in January 2024. As a result, the statutory filling level target for February 1, 2024 was exceeded. It is possible to completely fill the gas storage facilities again before the coming winter of 2024/2025.
On February 8, 2024, the Initiative Energien Speichern e.V. (INES) published the February update on the association's own gas scenarios. It shows that the average temperatures in the months of winter 2023/2024 have so far been above the assumed normal temperatures. In November and December 2023 in particular, there were therefore only lower withdrawals. The statutory fill level target of 40% as of February 1, 2024 was clearly exceeded at 75% despite a cold spell in January. The gas storage level remains above the historical average.
Gas consumption rose significantly in January 2024 due to a cold spell. To cover demand, approximately one third of the monthly average gas volume was supplied from gas storage facilities. However, even in extremely cold temperatures, gas storage facilities are no longer expected to be emptied on a large scale. The low point in the INES gas scenario "cold winter" is reached in mid-March and is 28%.
Complete refilling of the gas storage facilities before the coming winter of 2024/2025 is possible regardless of the assumed temperatures.
INES Managing Director Sebastian Heinermann comments on the publication of the February update as follows: "The short cold spell in January clearly showed us how quickly gas consumption rises when it gets really cold. During the cold spell in January, more than half of the gas required in Germany was supplied from storage facilities. The use of gas storage facilities in January showed that they not only reliably keep the gas supply system in balance, but are also basically the only flexibility available when major fluctuations in consumption occur."
BACKGROUND TO THE INES GAS SCENARIOS:
INES continuously models the European gas markets in order to assess the security of gas supply. On this basis and taking into account the storage levels on February 1, 2024, three scenarios for the gas supply in Germany in the remaining winter and summer of 2024 were considered:
The INES scenarios for gas supply in winter 2023/24 were supplemented for the first time in the January update with an outlook for summer 2024 and updated for the remainder of winter 2024. With the February update, the regular update took place, taking into account the data situation up to the end of the previous month of January.
During the "summer phase", INES only publishes updates to the INES gas scenarios every two months. In winter, updates are published monthly. The next update is scheduled for March 7, 2024.
A detailed description of the scenarios and results can be found in the comprehensive documentation. A set of slides is also available which clearly presents the key content of the documentation. Since the February update, no more press conferences have been held to explain the gas scenarios in more detail. Previous press conferences on the gas scenarios have been recorded and can be viewed on the INES YouTube channel. The publication of the updates remains unaffected.
You can call up current information on gas storage levels in Germany and in the individual federal states at any time via the INES storage map. In addition, storage data can be filtered not only according to different storage types (cavern and pore storage) but also according to gas quality (L/H gas and hydrogen).