13.03.2025
The Initiative Energien Speichern (INES) has released its March update on gas scenarios and reassures that there is no risk of a gas shortage despite the significant depletion of German gas storage facilities in the first months of 2025. Since the beginning of the year, over 120 TWh of gas has been withdrawn – almost half of the total storage capacity. The current price development raises questions about refilling the storage for the upcoming winter. INES Managing Director Sebastian Heinermann therefore calls for a prompt strategy for cost-efficient storage refilling.
Berlin, March 13, 2025 – With the March update of its own gas scenarios, the Initiative Energien Speichern (INES) analyzes the significant depletion of storage in January and February 2025 in detail. Germany started the year 2025 with a storage level of around 80 percent. Since then, over 120 TWh of gas has been withdrawn from storage. This corresponds to almost half of Germany's gas storage capacity. The current storage level in Germany is below 32 percent.
The significant depletion of gas storage in January and February is due, on the one hand, to a much larger supply task compared to the last two winters. In January, gas consumption averaged 3.9 TWh per day. In February, the monthly average was even higher at 4.1 TWh per day. On the other hand, price signals may have led to larger withdrawals. Currently, gas prices on the spot market or for summer 2025 are above the prices for winter 2025/26.
Looking at the rest of winter 2024/25, there is no risk of a gas shortage despite the significant depletion of gas storage. The INES gas scenarios show that cold temperatures in March will not lead to a depletion of storage.
A complete refilling of gas storage in summer 2025 is technically possible through the gas infrastructures of the European internal market, regardless of the temperature level. However, due to the current price situation – higher gas prices in summer than in winter – there is currently no sufficient market incentive to refill the gas storage before the coming winter.
INES Managing Director Sebastian Heinermann comments on the March update as follows: "Due to the current price situation – higher summer than winter prices – we cannot assume that the storage facilities will reach the statutory fill levels purely through market mechanisms before the coming winter. We must therefore quickly find an answer to the question of how to cost-effectively refill the gas storage over the summer. The 'Strategic Refilling Instruments' (SBI) proposed by Trading Hub Europe (THE) are fundamentally suitable for ensuring cost-effective refilling of gas storage, although there is still room for improvement in detail."
BACKGROUND ON THE INES GAS SCENARIOS:
INES continuously models the European gas markets to assess the security of gas supply. Based on this and considering the storage levels as of March 1, 2025, three scenarios for gas supply in Germany for the remainder of winter and summer 2025 were considered:
The INES scenarios for gas supply in summer 2025 are now being presented for the first time with the January update. INES publishes updates to the INES gas scenarios every two months. The next update is scheduled for May 12, 2025.
FURTHER INFORMATION
Read Press Release in German / Pressemitteilung auf Deutsch lesen