10.07.2024
Today, the Initiative Energien Speichern e.V. (INES) published its July update on the association's own gas scenarios. In this update, INES takes the coming winter of 2024/2025 into account for the first time. If temperatures are normal to warm, gas storage facilities will be emptied moderately to extensively. If extremely cold temperatures occur in winter, the gas storage facilities will be completely emptied by the beginning of February 2025. A consumption level characterized by current savings can no longer be fully covered in this gas scenario.
The association's own gas scenarios presented today (July update) by the Initiative Energien Speichern e.V. (INES) show that the gas storage facilities can be completely refilled before the coming winter of 2024/2025, regardless of the assumed temperature level. The legal filling level requirements of 85% on October 1, 2024 and 95% on November 1, 2024 can therefore be met.
In contrast to the summer, the different temperature levels in the coming winter of 2024/2025 will have a significant impact on the development of storage levels. Due to falling temperatures, gas consumption will increase significantly from October 2024 in the gas scenarios. At normal temperatures, gas consumption in October already doubles compared to the previous month. One month later, the monthly average gas consumption rises to such an extent that the first withdrawal from storage is required at normal temperatures.
If the temperature level remains within the range of normal or warm temperatures, the gas storage facilities will be emptied to a fill level of between 35 and 69% by the end of winter in April 2025. In both scenarios, the statutory filling level requirement of 40 percent can be met on February 1, 2025.
In a gas scenario with extremely cold temperatures, the gas storage facilities will be completely empty by the beginning of February 2025. In this scenario, a consumption level characterized by previous savings can no longer be fully covered. In the calculations, a gas shortage occurs in extremely cold temperatures, which amounts to around 20 percent of gas consumption in Germany on individual days.
INES Managing Director Sebastian Heinermann comments on the July update of the INES gas scenarios with the following words: „As in the last two winters, extremely cold temperatures would create challenges for our gas supply. We are not over the worst yet. The security of gas supply we were used to before the energy crisis has not yet been fully restored in Germany. Consumption savings will therefore remain a relevant topic in the coming winter.“
BACKGROUND TO THE INES GAS SCENARIOS:
INES continuously models the European gas markets in order to assess the security of gas supply. On this basis and taking into account the storage levels on July 1st, 2024, three scenarios for the gas supply in Germany in summer 2024 and winter 2024/2025 were considered:
The INES scenarios for the gas supply in winter 2024/2025 are presented for the first time with this July update. It also contains an updated consideration of the remainder of summer 2024 and the filling of gas storage facilities during this period.
During the "summer phase", INES only publishes updates to the INES gas scenarios every two months. In winter, updates are published monthly. The next update is scheduled for September 5th, 2024.
A detailed description of the scenarios and results can be found in the comprehensive documentation. A set of slides is also available which clearly presents the key content of the documentation. Since the February update, no more press conferences have been held to explain the gas scenarios in more detail. Previous press conferences on the gas scenarios have been recorded and can be viewed on the INES YouTube channel. The publication of the updates remains unaffected.