14.11.2024

INES Releases November Update on Gas-Scenarios

The gas storage facilities have been almost completely filled before the upcoming winter of 2024/25. The INES gas scenarios show that only extremely cold temperatures could pose challenges to the gas supply.

The Initiative Energien Speichern e.V. (INES) presents an updated outlook for the upcoming winter of 2024/25 with the November update. The gas storage facilities were filled to over 98 percent by November 4, 2024. The significant temperature-related increase in gas consumption has not only prevented further filling but also required substantial withdrawals. If gas consumption remains at the current level or increases further, a complete refilling of the gas storage facilities is no longer expected.

The INES gas scenarios indicate that the early withdrawals in November are likely to have little impact on the winter outlook. With average to warm temperatures, the gas storage facilities will be moderately to extensively depleted in the winter of 2024/25. In both scenarios, the statutory fill level requirement of 30 percent on February 1, 2025, can be met. If extremely cold temperatures occur in the winter of 2024/25, the gas storage facilities will be completely depleted by mid-February 2025. Without the gas storage facilities, high gas consumption on individual very cold days can no longer be fully covered.

INES Managing Director Sebastian Heinermann comments on the November update as follows: “It is not so much the upcoming winter of 2024/25, but rather the refilling of the gas storage facilities in the coming summer of 2025 that increasingly concerns the storage industry. The currently negative summer-winter spread raises concerns that price signals do not provide sufficient incentives for the market to refill. In light of the negative summer-winter spread, the effectiveness and cost-efficiency of the filling instruments from the Gas Storage Act should be reviewed and ensured.”

BACKGROUND ON THE INES GAS SCENARIOS:

INES continuously models the European gas markets to assess the security of gas supply. Based on this and considering the storage levels as of November 1, 2024, three scenarios for gas supply in Germany in the winter of 2024/2025 were considered:

1. The first scenario uses the temperatures of the EU weather year 2016 to consider normal temperatures.
2. Another scenario assumes “warm temperatures” like in the European winter of 2020.
3. A third scenario examines the gas supply for “cold temperatures” corresponding to the European winter of 2010.

The INES scenarios for gas supply in the winter of 2024/2025 were first presented with the July update. The current November update updates this scenario outlook again.

INES publishes updates on the INES gas scenarios every two months. The next update is scheduled for January 15, 2025.

FURTHER INFORMATION:

• Press statement as PDF file
• Presentation for the November update (in German)
• Documentation for the November update (in German)

Read Press Release in German / Pressemitteilung auf Deutsch lesen