March update: The storage year is drawing to a close

INES has published the March update on the association's own gas scenarios. Due to particularly warm temperatures in February, gas withdrawals from storage decreased significantly compared to January. It is possible to fill the gas storage facilities completely before the coming winter of 2024/2025.

With the update on the gas scenarios published on March 7, 2024, the Initiative Energien Speichern e.V. (INES) takes a look at the winter of 2023/2024 for the last time. Gas withdrawals from storage decreased significantly in February 2024 compared to the previous month. As a result, gas storage levels remain above the historical average.

Winter 2023/2024 has so far seen very warm temperatures. In the past months of October, December and February, the average monthly temperatures were even above the temperature level of the 2020 weather year. INES regularly uses the 2020 weather year as part of sensitivity analyses in order to consider gas scenarios with warm temperatures.

Extensive emptying of the gas storage facilities is no longer expected in the remainder of winter 2023/2024. Injections would be possible as early as mid-March if temperatures are warm. In the event of normal to cold temperatures, regular injections could begin at the end of March. Complete refilling of the gas storage facilities before the coming winter of 2024/2025 is possible regardless of the assumed temperatures.

INES Managing Director Sebastian Heinermann summarizes the March update as follows: "The switch from withdrawals to injections marks the start of preparations for the next winter of 2024/2025. This switch usually takes place in March or April. In view of the expected high initial filling levels, storage facility users have a large degree of economic freedom when refilling this year."


INES continuously models the European gas markets in order to assess the security of gas supply. On this basis and taking into account the storage levels as at March 1, 2024, three scenarios for the gas supply in Germany in the remainder of winter 2024 and summer 2024 were considered:

  • In the first scenario, the temperatures of the EU weather year 2016 are used on a country-specific basis in order to consider normal temperatures.
  • Another scenario assumes "warm temperatures" as in the European winter of 2020.
  • A third scenario examines the gas supply for "cold temperatures" corresponding to the European winter of 2010.

The INES scenarios for gas supply in winter 2023/24 were supplemented for the first time in the January update with an outlook for summer 2024 and updated for the remainder of winter 2024. With the March update, the regular update was carried out taking into account the data situation up to the end of the previous month of February.

During the "summer phase", INES only publishes updates to the INES gas scenarios every two months. In winter, updates are published monthly. The next update is scheduled for May 14, 2024 .

A detailed description of the scenarios and results can be found in the comprehensive documentation. A set of slides is also available which clearly presents the key content of the documentation. Since the February update, no more press conferences have been held to explain the gas scenarios in more detail. Previous press conferences on the gas scenarios have been recorded and can be viewed on the INES YouTube channel. The publication of the updates remains unaffected.

Download Press Statement as PDF file

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