12.05.2025
The May update of the INES Gas Scenarios analyzes the current gas supply situation in Germany for the upcoming winter under various weather conditions. In response to newly lowered storage level requirements recently issued by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK), INES has also assessed the impact of lower gas storage levels.
Berlin, May 12, 2025 – The current analysis shows: Germany entered the new storage year on April 1, 2025, with a comparatively low storage level of around 29%. Since then, refilling has progressed only slowly. However, from a technical standpoint, it would be possible to completely fill the storage facilities by October 2025 – regardless of temperature trends – using the existing gas infrastructure of the European internal market.
The current INES gas scenario expects a significant increase in gas consumption starting in October 2025 – for the first time, gas will be withdrawn again on a monthly average in November. Under average to mild temperatures in the winter of 2025/26, storage facilities will be moderately to substantially depleted. In these scenarios, the legal minimum storage level of 30% by February 1, 2026, can be met without issue.
However, in the case of an extremely cold winter, storage facilities will be fully depleted by mid-March 2026. Even with continued frugal consumption patterns, full demand coverage would only just be possible.
New Storage Regulation Increases Risk of Gas Shortages in Cold Weather
With the gas storage level regulation (GasSpFüllstV) issued by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action on April 30, 2025, the legal requirements have been adjusted through March 2027. For the upcoming winter, this means a reduction of the storage target to 70% by November 1. INES has conducted a sensitivity analysis to assess the impact on supply security.
The result: If this target is implemented, gas consumption in Germany – even characterized by current savings – cannot be fully covered, even if storage facilities in other EU countries are completely filled. In extremely cold temperatures, a gas shortage would occur – with over 17% of demand remaining unmet on some days.
Sebastian Heinermann, Managing Director of INES, stated:
"Our scenarios show that if gas storage facilities are fully filled, Germany need not fear a gas shortage – even in extremely cold temperatures. However, the new storage regulation lowers the obligation to fill the storage facilities. If storage facilities in Germany are subsequently only filled to 70%, gas shortages will occur in the event of extreme cold. With the gas storage level regulation, the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action is thus partially transferring responsibility for gas supply security back to the market. The government-backed filling of gas storage facilities to 70% is insufficient to ensure security of supply in Germany."
Background on the INES Gas Scenarios:
INES continuously models the European gas markets to assess the security of gas supply. Based on this modeling and taking into account the storage levels as of May 1, 2025, three scenarios for gas supply in Germany for summer 2025 and winter 2025/26 were considered:
INES publishes updates on the INES gas scenarios every two months. The next update is scheduled for July 9, 2025.
A detailed description of the scenarios and results is available in a comprehensive documentation. An additional slide set presents the key contents of the documentation clearly. Since the update in February 2024, no more press conferences have been held to explain the gas scenarios in detail. Previous press conferences on the gas scenarios were recorded and can be viewed on the INES YouTube channel. The publication of the updates remains unaffected. The updates have been published every two months since the November 2024 update, even in winter.
Current information on gas storage levels in Germany and in the individual federal states can be accessed at any time via the INES storage map. In addition, storage data can be filtered not only by different storage types (cavern and pore storage) but also by gas qualities (L-/H-gas and hydrogen).
FURTHER INFORMATION
Read Press Release in German / Pressemitteilung auf Deutsch lesen